Key Insights:
- It was a bullish Sunday session, with dogecoin (DOGE) and shiba inu coin (SHIB) joining the broader crypto market in positive territory.
- Network updates and subsiding Fed fear delivered DOGE and SHIB a bullish final session of the week.
- However, the technical indicators remain bearish, with economic uncertainty and the war in Ukraine crypto headwinds.
On Sunday, dogecoin (DOGE) rose 1.13%. Following a 0.63% gain on Saturday, DOGE ended the week up 2.49% to $0.06039. Notably, DOGE ended the session at $0.06 for the first time in thirteen sessions.
A bearish morning saw DOGE fall to a mid-day low of $0.05966. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.0592, DOGE rallied to a late high of $0.06050. DOGE broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.0601 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.0604 before ending the day at 0.06039.
Shiba inu coin (SHIB) rose by 1.60% on Sunday. Reversing a 0.20% decline from Saturday, SHIB ended the week down by 1.17% to $0.00001017. Notably, SHIB visited sub-$0.000010 for a sixth consecutive session.
Tracking the broader market, SHIB fell to a late morning low of $0.00000986. SHIB fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.00000992 before rallying to a late high of $0.00001020. SHIB broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.00001010 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.00001018 before easing back to $0.00001017.
A 73,329 increase in DOGE holders delivered DOGE price support over the weekend. According to the latest figures on CoinMarketCap, the number of holders increased from 4,385,520 on July 27 to 4,458,849 on October 24. As per the chart below, the increase occurred on Friday, October 21, which coincided with a shift in Fed forward guidance.
The increase in SHIB holders was less dramatic over the same period, rising from 1,213,469 to 1,228,876.
While holder numbers influence, updates on the Twitter (TWTR) acquisition and sentiment towards the Fed will also provide direction.
FOMC members added weekend support, with reports of the Fed planning to discuss a smaller rate hike in December, raising hopes of an end to the aggressive policy moves to bring inflation to target.
On Friday, FOMC member Mary Daly reportedly said it is time to consider slowing the pace of rate hikes, which should avoid sending the economy into a Fed-fueled recession. In response to the Fed chatter and comforting Yellen’s comments, the crypto market rose by $29 billion to $898.3 billion Friday through Sunday.
After the bullish Sunday session, the market focus will turn to US private sector PMI numbers for October. An increase in service sector activity, hiring, and rising input and output prices could refuel bets of a 75-basis point Fed rate hike in December.
This morning, economic indicators from China failed to deliver a bullish start to the week despite better-than-expected Q3 GDP numbers.
The economy expanded by 3.9% year-over-year versus 0.4% in Q2. In Q3, the economy grew by 3.9%, reversing a 2.6% contraction in Q2. Economists forecast growth of 3.4% and 3.5%, respectively.
However, market reaction to Xi Jinping taking his leadership into a third term, with a government stacked with loyalists, weighed on riskier assets this morning. Xi’s support for Vladimir Putin, China’s position on Taiwan, and its zero-tolerance policy on COVID-19 are immediate concerns.
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Action
At the time of writing, DOGE was down 0.88% to $0.05986. A mixed start to the day saw DOGE rise to an early high of $0.06094 before falling to a low of $0.05975. DOGE fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.0599.
Technical Indicators
DOGE needs to move through S1 and the $0.0602 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.0607. Economic indicators from the euro area and the US would need to be crypto-friendly to support a bullish session.
In the case of an extended crypto market rally, DOGE should test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.0610. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.0619.
Failure to move through S1 and the pivot would leave the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.0593 in play. However, barring an extended crypto sell-off, DOGE should steer clear of sub-$0.0590 and the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $0.0585.
The EMAs sent a bearish signal, with DOGE sitting below the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.05990. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA flattened on the 200-day EMA. The price signals were mixed.
A move through the 100-day EMA ($0.05990) would give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA ($0.06067) and R1 ($0.0607). However, failure to move through S1 ($0.0599) would leave the 50-day EMA ($0.05953) and S2 ($0.0593) in play.
Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB) Price Action
At the time of writing, SHIB was down 1.38% to $0.00001003. A choppy start to the day saw SHIB rise to an early high of $0.00001020 before falling to a low of $0.00000998.
Technical Indicators
SHIB needs to move through the $0.00001008 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.00001029. However, SHIB would need broader market support to break out from the morning high of $0.00001020.
A broad-based crypto rally would see SHIB test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.00001042 and resistance at $0.00001050. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.00001076.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.00000995 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, SHIB should avoid sub-$0.00000980 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.000000974.
The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.00000940.
The EMAs send a bearish signal, with SHIB sitting below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.00001011. This morning, the 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were bearish.
A move through the 50-day EMA ($0.00001011) would support a run at R1 ($0.00001029) and the 100-day EMA ($0.00001033). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.00001011) would leave S1 ($0.00000995) in view.
