Key Insights:
- Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB) joined the broader market in a bullish Saturday session.
- Market angst towards the Ethereum Merge and the US CPI report took a back seat as investors jumped in at depressed coin price levels.
- However, technical indicators are bearish, suggesting price pressure going into the Fed policy decision.
On Saturday, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 2.88%. Following a 3.17% rally on Friday, DOGE ended the day at $0.06220.
A mixed morning saw DOGE fall to a mid-morning low of $0.06021. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.05890, DOGE rallied to a late afternoon high of $0.06242.
DOGE broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.0613 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.0621 before briefly falling back to $0.0613. A bullish end to the day saw DOGE break back through R2 to end the day at $0.06220.
Reversing a 1.11% loss on Friday, Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB) rose by 3.11% to end the day at $0.00001194.
Bullish throughout the day, SHIB rose from an early morning low of $0.00001158 to a late afternoon high of $0.00001202. SHIB broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.0000118 to wrap up the day at $0.00001194.
There were no crypto news events to influence, leaving DOGE and SHIB in the hands of crypto market sentiment going into the weekend. Dip buyers returned after the Ethereum Merge-fueled sell-off, with the upside coming despite recession fears resurfacing.
For the crypto market, recession fears seem more palatable than Fed fear. On Saturday, the CME FedWatch Tool had the probability of a 75-basis point rate hike at 82% and a percentage point hike at 18%. Weak US retail sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing PMI numbers eased expectations of a more hawkish Fed.
Following Tuesday’s CPI report, the probability of a percentage point rate hike had peaked at 31% before easing back.
In the coming week, US economic indicators are on the lighter side. A lack of stats will leave the markets to look ahead to Wednesday’s monetary policy decision and FOMC projections. A hawkish Fed would put the pair under more selling pressure.
Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB) Price Action
At the time of writing, SHIB was down 0.59% to $0.00001187.
A mixed morning saw SHIB fall to an early low of $0.00001182 before rising to a high of $0.00001197.
Technical Indicators
SHIB needs to avoid the $0.0000118 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.0000121.
SHIB would need a pickup in market risk appetite to support a return to $0.0000120. The broader crypto market will likely provide direction, with the US markets closed over the weekend. Expect the NASDAQ 100 Mini to influence in the final hour of the session (UTC), however.
In the case of a broad-based crypto rally, SHIB should test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.0000123 and resistance at $0.0000125. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.0000127.
A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.0000117 into play. Barring another extended sell-off, SHIB should avoid sub-$0.0000115 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.0000114.
The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.0000110.
The EMAs send a bearish signal, with SHIB sitting below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.00001212. This morning, the 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. Both signals were price negatives.
A move through R1 ($0.0000121) and the 50-day EMA ($0.00001212) would bring R2 ($0.0000123) and the 100-day EMA ($0.00001233) into view. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave S1 ($0.0000117) in play.
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Action
At the time of writing, DOGE was down 1.47% to $0.06129. A mixed start to the day saw DOGE rise to an early high of $0.06226 before falling to a low of $0.06124.
Technical Indicators
DOGE needs to move through the $0.0616 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.0630.
Bullish sentiment across the crypto market would support a breakout from the Saturday high of $0.06242. In an extended crypto rally, DOGE should test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.0638. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.0660.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.0608 in play. Barring another extended sell-off, DOGE should avoid sub-$0.0600 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.0594. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.0572.
The EMAs sent a bearish signal, with DOGE sitting below the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.06227. Today, the 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.
DOGE needs to break out from the 100-day EMA ($0.06227) and R1 ($0.0630) to target R2 ($0.0638) and the 200-day EMA ($0.06411). However, a fall through the 50-day EMA would leave S1 ($0.0608) in play.
